Palin Electoral Math
Part of the reason Sarah Palin is getting so much publicity lately is because she is in the middle of her book tour. Another part is because a core group on the right are obsessed with her. The last part is because liberals and independents are terrified of her and the possibility that she could be elected president.
Most of these fears are unfounded. Palin has a large and motivated base of supporters who are extremely loyal and vocal. If those traits were enough to get elected, then we would have had President Ron Paul a long time ago. But a candidate who cannot appeal to moderates within and without the party cannot win. Palin’s poll numbers (notwithstanding any polls during her book tour) are dismal among independents. They consistently give her extremely high negative ratings.
Palin’s support is also highly concentrated in areas that are already solidly Republican. She does very well in the Bible belt and the deep South, but not in the swing states where it matters. To win in 2012, Palin would have to steal at least 97 electoral votes from what Obama won in 2008. That would amount to essentially a sweep of all the states even remotely in play. It is perhaps a possibility, but a distant possibility. These are all the states Palin could possibly steal in 2012 (those which Obama won by less than 10%) and the margin by which Obama won them in 2008:
- 11 IN (50-49)
- 15 NC (50-49)
- 22 FL (51-48)
- 20 OH (52-47)
- 13 VA (53-47)
- 4 NH (54-45)
- 21 PA (54-45)
- 7 IA (54-45)
- 9 CO (54-45)
Try out the electoral math yourself on this interactive map and see if you can find a realistic scenario where we have President Palin in 2012. Remember that Palin was on the ticket in 2008, and her VP candidacy played a central role in determining the outcome. It’s not as if 2012 would be the first time Palin’s ability to win swing states would be tested.
