Go Iran!
I am absolutely amazed at what is happen in Iran right now. This is going to go down in the history books. According to the Daily Dish, the head of Iran’s election monitoring commission is declaring the election invalid. I’m not quite sure what that will mean, but it has definitely kept me glued to every news source I can find.
Let me emphasize one thing before I go on. The worst, and I mean the WORST thing President Obama can do is comment on the election. He needs to stay out of this thing as much as he can. When he holds press conferences in the coming days, he needs to answer questions about the election with, “no comment—no comment.” The more Obama tries to engage in this election, the more propaganda weapons Ahmadinejad will have at his disposal. Stay away!!!
It is beyond obvious that this election was rigged. While it was conceivable that Ahmadinejad would win, his margin was far greater than anyone expected. So now the young, pro-West, urban Iranians are taking to the streets. I’m not normally a fan of mass protest, but I think for now I’ll make a exception. The reverberations that could be sent throughout the middle east and the greater Islamic world could be profound. Go Iran! Death to dictatorship!
(Update)
This is the statement from the White House. It’s nice and bland—just right.
Like the rest of the world, we were impressed by the vigorous debate and enthusiasm that this election generated, particularly among young Iranians. We continue to monitor the entire situation closely, including reports of irregularities.
It certainly could have been rigged…but don’t you think any smart person who rigged an election would have made the margin of victory a bit smaller? I guess they may be trying to say that the margin of victory shows their way of thinking to be that much more dominant in Iran. Any thoughts?
There are three reasons why I think it was rigged.
1) Every analyst predicted at least a close election. Moussavi was riding a wave of momentum coming into the election.
2) Historically, when Iran has had enormous turnouts they have elected reform-minded individuals.
3) And this is the kicker—Moussavi lost in his home town. I’m sorry, that just doesn’t happen, especially in Iran.
As for your question, the argument that the margin of victory was too large to be rigged is exactly the one Ahmadinejad and the Ministry of Interior (whose ministers are appointed by Ahmadinejad) are using.
Chris, I think you are dead on with your analysis. Even though we disagree on some things, I am always excited when you post on foreign policy because it always sounds good.
McCain, the non-president, sounds like he would like to do exactly the opposite. McCain wants to “act!” Not only that, but it sounds like he wants to cut off the dialogue that the administration has been working to establish.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/06/15/mccain-act-iran/
“As with McCain’s impetuous response to the Georgia crisis last summer, his first reaction to the events in Iran is condemnation and a call to ‘act.’ By contrast, the Obama administration seems to understand that knowing when not to act is just as strategically important as knowing when to do so, and that the most productive thing the United States can do for Iran’s reform movement — and human rights — at the moment is to keep itself, to the extent possible, out of the equation.”
I wonder what Palin says on Iran?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/opinion/19shane.html