Book of Olmert to be Canonized

Olmert to be known as the prophet of sensibility.

Via the New York Times:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in an interview published on Monday that Israel must withdraw from nearly all of the West Bank as well as East Jerusalem to attain peace with the Palestinians and that any occupied land it held onto would have to be exchanged for the same quantity of Israeli territory.

He also dismissed as “megalomania” any thought that Israel would or should attack Iran on its own to stop it from developing nuclear weapons, saying the international community and not Israel alone was charged with handling the issue.

Too bad Olmert is stepping down as Prime Minister, otherwise this could have signified a real change in policy.  Nonetheless, it’s quite notable coming from the one-time hawkish PM; the same PM who order an all-out invasion of Lebanon in 2006, in response to the capture of two Israeli soldiers at the Israeli-Lebanese border by Hezbollah.  In my opinion, it puts a great deal of pressure on incoming PM, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, to address the traditional Israeli doctrine of military intervention, occupation, and divide and control.

Perhaps the most significant implication of Olmert’s statements is the subtle advocacy of abdicating a foreign policy based on hard power in exchange for a more “cooperative” policy.  Israel, since its foundation as a modern state in 1948, has advocated policies based on the use of hard power–belligerent foreign policy doctrines, military invasions, tactical bombings, and “police actions” in the West Bank and the Gaza strip.  Although the initial gains were significant, albeit expansionist in nature and dubious in legitimacy, everything after the 1967 war has brought differing levels of criticism and high levels of backlash from the surrounding countries, non-state actors, and terrorists groups.  Despite the staunch backing of the United States, Israel has found itself in a constant state of peril and seemingly endless conflict with its regional neighbors.

It may be that common sense has hit hard in Tel Aviv.  A realization that an alternative to the use of hard power to achieve security could be on the horizon.  Essentially what Olmert is advocating is what U.N. Resolution 242 called for after the 1967 war–withdrawal from occupied territories and an abdication of claims of states of belligerency; a resolution heretofore completely ignored by Israel.  Olmert reasons that Israel can’t possibly continue to use the strategies of the past to secure the safety of Israel’s future.

“With [Israeli defense strategists], it is all about tanks and land and controlling territories and controlled territories and this hilltop and that hilltop,” he said. “All these things are worthless.” [emphasis mine]

At the very least, Olmert’s statements seem to confirm my theory I stated early this year, that none other than Israel can bring about any sort of solution to one of the most tempestuous situations of the modern era.  The Palestinian Question and Israel’s border tensions can be solved by no other actor than Israel itself.  It will involve making great concessions and a swallowing of some pride.  However, even from a Realist standpoint, a policy based on Olmert’s statements is sound policy.  Israel sufferes from a loss of power (real and perceived) and legitimacy the longer it maintains the policies of the status quo.   How the new coalition will respond to Olmert’s statements, if they respond at all, will be of great interest.