Don’t Get Too Excited Republicans. This Election Is Far From Over.
For a McCain fan like myself, I’m pleased with the bounce he has received since the convention. The expectations (even my own) were quite the opposite and it seemed that Obama’s lead after McCain’s convention would at least exceed the lead he had before his own convention.
McCain on RCP currently has about a 2 point lead. But I want to caution fellow McCain supporters that part of that poll average contains a USA Today poll that is giving McCain about 10 point lead. This just isn’t right and is skewing the data a bit. Most other polls give McCain about a one to three point lead. But that could be completely irrelevant because of our electoral system.
Barack Obama is leading Colorado and has been for quite some time now. It only became close there about a month ago. And Obama had his convention there. The winner of this election will have won Ohio and Colorado. I’m conceding Michigan to Obama. McCain has the potential to make it close there but I would lose my brain if he wins it.
And while McCain is leading in Ohio, it is still way too close to have any idea what will happen there. In short, there is absolutely no way to say with any sureness who will win this election.
The political analysts that have no clue what they are talking about are the ones that are confident they know who will win this November. If anyone sounds this way, don’t listen to them. They either work for one of the campaigns or just seriously lack information.
The winner of this election will have won Ohio and Colorado.
That’s not true at all. There are many ways Obama could win without either of them. Take a look at the 2004 electoral map. Assume Obama will at least get all the Kerry states. That means he only needs 18 more electoral votes. Now look at an electoral map for this race. Viable combinations abound.
If Obama holds on to Pennsylvania and Michigan (as seems likely), he would need to win only one of the three major swing states (CO, OH, and VA). Obama’s chances look a lot better at the electoral college level than they do from the national polls. I would personally be amused by an Obama winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote (though that seems unlikely).
The debates seem to be the most like game-changing events between now and November, and the expectations game (as it always does) seems likely to determine how they are interpreted. Palin has already won the VP debate. All she has to do is not come across as a complete lightweight and she will exceed the expectations set by the press. Expectations look like they could work in the opposite direction for the McCain/Obama debates. Republicans have spent the last few months pushing the idea that Obama can’t put two reasonable words together when he is off script or teleprompter, and Obama can take advantage of the same situation Palin is in. Obama is not as good in debates as he is in set piece speeches, but he isn’t nearly as bad as Republicans try to make him out to be. He improved dramatically over the course of the Democratic primaries, and McCain is not exactly a titan of the debate format. If Obama just seems like he knows what he is talking about he starts to become more “presidential” (whatever that means).
The other thing that could change the way the race progresses is a change in the way the press covers the race. Until now they have treated lies and distortions by both sides as “controversies” rather than actually reporting the truth (or lack thereof) behind various allegations. Such as change would probably hurt McCain because of the political fundamentals and the ensuing onus that it puts on McCain to fudge the issues in his favor (e.g. continuing to lie about Palin’s opposition to the bridge to nowhere, selling the state jet on eBay).
They didn’t say they sold the jet on ebay, they put it on ebay. They sold it through a private seller at a loss. Palin was initially for the bridge to nowhere, but reversed her position when it became unpopular. Obama claims that McCain does not desire a timeline, which isn’t true. The WashPost confirmed in an article a couple of weeks ago Mac wants troops out by 2013 contingent on conditions on the ground. In his nomination speech, Obama said that McCain that anyone making less than $5million/year was middle class. Not true. McCain mentioned the $5million at the Saddleback event when ask what was rich. Please stick to the issues. Both parties distort the facts.
Actually McCain has said on the stump several times that she sold it on eBay and made a profit. Check the tape. You’re right, she put it on eBay (a clever publicity stunt) but it didn’t sell and they lost money on it. And Palin did support the bridge before it was deauthorized by Congress (for it before she was against it? I’m sure Republicans never thought that was a bad thing), and even when she came around to allegedly opposing it she still kept the money. Maybe that was a smart thing for a governor to do for their state, but it isn’t something that an anti-pork crusader would do.
Of course both parties distort things, but the eBay jet story is an outright lie.
Forget ebay, bridges to nowhere, (but she still built the road to nowhere), how she ran up massive debt in her little town. Those don’t matter when you consider she said the war in Iraq is a task from god. That will make a majority of folks very nervous
Jkkuwitzky, you’re right. McCain has to win both, Obama only needs to win one of them. My math was slightly off.
That being said, I think that only strengthens my proposition that Republicans ought not to get too excited.
Chris,
You’re right that this thing isn’t settled by a long shot. But if the Democrats don’t get over their shock about Palin, they are going to give this election to the Republicans.
I don’t object to the questions about Palin’s suitability for the office, nor do I think anybody else does. But no matter how hard Obama tries to hold the high road, his supporters are perpetually dragging this thing into the mud, and the swing voters won’t like it.