I agree with the notion that Obama is under the media’s scrutiny and his ability to navigate, politically, is dissected meticulously under the microscope. Despite Obama’s insistence that his position on Iraq hasn’t changed much, most disagree. Obama’s hitting the reality wall and realizing that the 16 month withdrawal timetable isn’t a viable argument, anymore.

Things are “significantly” different in Iraq. Much different than in 2007, when Obama took his definitive withdrawal position on Iraq. Obama’s shift on the issue is rational and correct, in my opinion. The way in which the media portrays it and the way the people interpret it, is the primary question. How the McCain campaign handles this may perhaps be crucial to the election (perhaps not) — we’ll shall see.

On the vast majority of issues, McCain is clearly intent on continuing Bush’s policies. However, he can wave around climate change, torture (where he is better than Bush, but not good enough), and spending as shiny objects to distract the press from the fact that they are the same on taxes, Iraq, social security, et al (not to mention that McCain promises to be much much worse on non-Iraq foreign policy). It would be quite a feat for the Obama campaign to be able to instigate a media narrative about McCain being the next Bush. I hope they can pull it off, but I doubt it.

The Bush-McCain comparison won’t be seen as a smear, I don’t think. For one thing, it is largely true. For another, a lot of it is subtle – like pictures and passing references – rather than just coming out and using the “third term” line.

What can McCain throw out that separates his policies from Bush? Political people know that they don’t get along all that well, but McCain seems to have lost a lot of that “maverick” image.

I told him that I didn’t think that ignoring it was going to make it go away.