Clinton Countdown
Obama is trying to be very gracious with his apparent victory in the Democratic nomination, and so are many of his supporters (this blog has not gloated too much, I don’t think). But by now, pretty much everybody can smell what’s cooking – Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee for 2008.
There are still at least a few people who are apparantly holding out hope, though. When Kentucky voted last Tuesday, exit polls showed that 68% of Clinton’s supporters there still believed she would win the nomination. Also, Bill Clinton suggested yesterday that a Clinton win in Montana (16 pledged delegates) could change some party leaders’ minds and shift the momentum to his wife.
On the more mainstream, conventional-wisdom side of things, most political analysts are trying to decide when would be the best time for Clinton to drop out. I see at least a few possibilities for Clinton’s exit strategy. Here are my brainstorms and the possible rationales for each:
- As soon as possible. Clinton has already invested so much time and energy into this campaign, not to mention her own personal money. There is almost no possibility whatsoever that she could still win the nomination, so any more effort at this point is essentially wasted. The longer she stays in, the less personal political capital she will have to continue her Senate career (which could still be long and dignified). Also, it will just make things awkward between her and the likely next president, Obama, for her to keep going at this point.
- After June 3. The last two primaries in the primary, Montana and South Dakota, vote on June 3. Even if Clinton won every single pledged delegate from both of those states (unlikely), she would still be 163 delegates behind Obama with nothing more to look forward to. But at that point, she can say that she let all the votes be cast and counted before she decided that the people had spoken. June 3 is still relatively soon, and it makes sense as a political landmark for her to drop out then. I think this scenario makes the most sense, and so does Jimmy Carter.
- After Obama clinches the nomination with 2,025 delegates. At this point, Obama is still estimated to be about 57 away from that “magic number.” Since he will probably do well on June 3, he will probably be within 40 or fewer just from the pledged delegates. At that point, the pressure on superdelegates will also increase dramatically for them to make up their minds, and it is very likely that enough of them will quickly move to support Obama that he will clinch the nomination within a week after the last primary.
- Not until Obama gets 2,209 delegates. Clinton started trying to use this new “magic number” recently along with her argument that the delegations from Michigan and Florida should be seated at the convention. If those delegations are counted in full, still would not bring Clinton much closer to being competitive with Obama again, but it would move the endpoint farther back by almost 200 delegates. The only reason for Clinton continuing with this all but hopeless campaign would be if she is crossing her fingers for a pre-convention assassination or some personal scandal that would dwarf Wrightgate or Bittergate.
So what do you think? When do you think is the best time for Clinton to drop out from her perspective, from your perspective, and from the party’s perspective? When do you think she actually will drop out? These will be an interesting few weeks, and then the real fun can officially begin with the general election.
On or before June 12. Let everyone vote, let them make their case to the superdelegates, ramp up to a nice coordinated event where she can endorse him on the most watched television night of the week (Thursday) and he can get his post nomination bounce. I’d pick a better sponsor for your scenarios than Jimmy Carter. Perhaps someone with an ounce of political credibility.
The Carter reference was just a random by-the-way thing, but I think you are right about early June. I would be surprised if she waits until the 12, but I would be even more surprised if she waits longer than that.
I’m trying to figure out at what point I said to myself, “well, I’ll start to really think about this election once Obama has the nomination.” I think it was after Indiana and North Carolina. Then I figured Clinton would stay in until the end in order to save face and to still be around if by some freakish incident Obama fell from his political ascension.
I think she’ll be around until June. But, at this point, I don’t think it matters much. Clinton may just be running it out (to use a baseball metaphor).
I think the more pertinent question is this: what is the chance that we see an Obama-Clinton ticket? This question sounded ludicrous a few months ago, but the likelihood of such a ticket is more likely now that the nomination is all but completed. Now, just how likely is a Obama-Clinton ticket? I couldn’t say.
Here’s another question: Why does this blog report on Jimmy Carter so much? Do we really like him? I always thought he was a decent fellow, but I didn’t live during the Carter presidency. I was just a glimmer in God’s eye in the 1970s.
I would dislike the Obama-Clinton ticket very much. There are better people for him to pick, and I’d hate to see her further tainted for 2012 should he lose to McCain (though I can promise that there will be no shortage of people rushing to blame her even if she isn’t on the ticket). My hopes for an Obama win in November seem to be shrinking by the week, though I must admit that (if he would promise not to appoint any SC justices) I don’t see him in the White House as the end of the world. I am the ultimate pessimist, so take that with a grain of salt.
I propose an indefinite moratorium on Carter references. As good a man as he appears to be, his political value is nonexistent and he seems to be tottering on the edge of senility. Surely there are better Democratic old souls to seek council from.
I think Mr. Carter was alright in the eyes of most Americans until his recent self-sacrificial, moral crusade to change the inherent nature of international politics.
That’s the last I’ll say for awhile.
“A glimmer in God’s eye,” S.C.?
I know this off your subject, but knowing that some of the PC deal with economics, I was wondering if any of you know the cost of the Mars Expedition which recently landed the Rover?
Hyperbole.
$520 million? From Nasawatch.com.
Space exploration is such a waste of money.
… for government spending, that is. Virgin Mobile can fly to Jupiter for all I care.
I am a big HRC supporter and continue to believe that she is a major force in this event; Obama must place her on the ticket. I have heard many pundits say he does not need her, but I disagree. Many HRC supporters have already stated that if she does not get the nomination, they will support McCain; I see this as a big risk. Why not go with a sure bet; she has done better than he has in a number of key general election states.
As much as I may like an Obama-Clinton ticket, I see a couple of key obstacles that may prevent it from ever happening:
1. Obama may need to nominate a white southerner with more political experience (especially Foreign Policy experience).
2. I somewhat doubt Clinton will take the VP nomination. As Kolby stated, she may be looking to 2012 in anticipation of an Obama loss to McCain (although this is unlikely and partly said because of our resident pessimist). She may also wish to return to the Senate, where she may have more political sway as a senator vis-a-vis a Vice President.
Despite all of the above an Obama-Clinton ticket may need to be seriously considered. The issue of losing Clinton voters is real. Many white, blue-collar people have voiced their disapproval of Obama and their unwillingness to vote for him in the general election. The question here is: how “real” is this concern? Most of the people mentioned were asked after voting for Clinton when she was still a viable candidate. When Obama gets the nomination and the backing of the entire Democratic establishment, I have doubts that those who originally opposed an Obama ticket will remain as recalcitrant.
I have thought long and hard about point 1.
God, Clinton, drop out already. What the heck is she really stalling for? Does she really think that this helps her in any way to not concede?
Patience, little ones. A few days of negotiations to tie up loose ends won’t hurt anybody. Sort out the veep issue, staff issues, and some financial things, and we can go from there. If it goes beyond this weekend, then we have a problem.
Besides, if McCain is going to keep throwing out clunkers like the one he had tonight then we are going to be fine.
God, McCain… so old.